Bitcoin Stuck in Dilemma: Will It Break Higher or Lower Before Year-End?
Bitcoin has been stuck between $58,000 and $67,000 for eight weeks without breaking out or down. However, prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen believes a decision will be made before the end of the year. He points to two converging levels: the bear market resistance band coming down from above and the 200-week moving average rising from below.
Cowen puts the bear market resistance band at roughly $69,000 and the 200-week moving average at $63,700. His base case is that Bitcoin moves lower before it moves higher, citing on-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-score that have not yet reset to cycle lows. Historically, every prior midterm year has shown August weakness.
Analyst Luke Martin flags that Bitcoin's realized volatility has dropped below the Nasdaq 100's for the past 30 days, a signal he says only appears once or twice a year. His historical data across 12 instances of this signal shows it points higher rather than lower.