Bitcoin Stuck in Late-Stage Bear Market as On-Chain Indicators Signal Caution
Bitcoin's price has been stuck in a narrow range of $64,500 to $64,900 for August 9, reflecting a 1% gain on the day and a weekly advance exceeding 3%. The cryptocurrency maintains the psychological $64,000 level, although price action remains confined within this compressed range.
On-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is in a late-stage bear market. Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap indicates that 45 price metrics have remained in a capitulation phase for the most extended period since the FTX collapse in late 2022, with conditions consistent with a late-stage bear market.
Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft notes that the indicator currently resides in its coldest phase since FTX, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a bottom. The Bitcoin Cycle Composite condenses 45 on-chain indicators into a single score and currently registers at 19.9, within the cold zone reserved for capitulation phases.
CryptoQuant's Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio provides independent confirmation of this bearish trend. The ratio has declined to 0.031, placing it at the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle (April 2024, present).