Bitcoin Supply in Loss Surges to Nearly 50%, Fueling Bearish Sentiment

The Bitcoin market has been struggling to maintain its price above $65K, and recent data suggests that nearly 50% of the available supply is in loss. This metric, tracked by CryptoQuant, shows a strong correlation with major market bottoms rather than cycle tops.

Historically, during periods of extreme stress, such as those seen in 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, Bitcoin's Supply in Loss has climbed towards the 50%-55% region. While this may indicate that bearish repricing has already occurred, it also suggests that prices can remain in a high-loss regime for months before establishing a durable bottom.

The current situation is further complicated by the fact that BTC is consolidating near $64K, below its 20-day EMA at $64,900 and well under the 50-day EMA near $69,200. The three-day chart shows a bear flag breakdown already underway, with the measured move pointing towards roughly $50,400, implying about 21% downside.