Bitcoin Supply in Profit Eyes 60%, But Recovery Remains Uncertain
Bitcoin investors are back in profit, but data from CryptoQuant suggests it's too early to confirm a new bull market. The platform reports that nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply is now profitable, up from 46% in late June. This marks an improvement, but experts caution that the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery.
The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs), who hold their coins for at least six months, is also improving. However, previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements: the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%.
Since April, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days, and both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR rolled back over after a failed attempt at recovery in May. This cycle's recovery remains fragile, with demand appearing mixed and institutional BTC allocation rebounding.