Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears 60%, but Analysts Warn of Fragile Recovery

Bitcoin's supply in profit has reached nearly 60% as the cryptocurrency's circulating supply moves back into profitability. This improvement indicates that a growing share of BTC holders are now holding coins worth more than their acquisition price.

However, analysts caution that the current rebound does not yet confirm the beginning of a new bull market. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's supply in profit climbed to 57.5% on July 22, up sharply from the 2026 low of 46.2% recorded on June 30.

One of the key indicators being monitored is the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), which tracks whether long-term holders are generally moving their Bitcoin at a profit or loss. A value above 1 indicates that coins are predominantly being spent at a profit, while a reading below 1 can signal selling at a loss or capitulation.

ThechessONCHAIN noted that previous Bitcoin bear-market recoveries have generally required both supply in profit to remain above 64% and the 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR to stay above 1 for an extended period. However, the current cycle has already seen one failed recovery attempt between April 28 and June 1.