Bitcoin Surge Fuels Hopes for Bear Market Bottom in November 2026

Bitcoin surged in August, closing the month with its largest monthly gain since November 2024. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, this capped a quarter that left Bitcoin prices at the low end of their historical range.

Cycle math suggests that if history repeats itself, the next bear market bottom for Bitcoin will occur around November 2026. However, Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, warns against treating this as a timing tool, emphasizing the importance of long-term perspective and holding periods for investors.

The recent price jump, which exceeded 25% in a single month, has some analysts looking for signs that the bear market may be ending. Kuiper notes that previous bear markets have often been followed by quiet trading before volatility expands to the upside.

Despite negative headlines over the summer, including a hardware wallet security incident and the stalling of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin prices did not decline. The SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets has also had little impact on the market so far.