Bitcoin Surges Past $79K: Is This the Start of a New Bull Cycle?

The cryptocurrency market has experienced its sharpest rally of the year, with Bitcoin blasting past $79K and Ethereum reclaiming $2,400. This surge marks a potential turning point in the market, as seller exhaustion levels have fallen to historical lows.

According to data, the Seller Exhaustion Constant has dropped to 0.007, placing it in the lowest 0.3% of all readings since 2010. In all 10 prior instances where this occurred, Bitcoin traded higher a year later with a median gain of 155%.

While the Treasury's buyback was a trigger for the rally, it is not considered Quantitative Easing (QE). The real driver behind the surge appears to be the liquidation of $2.75 billion in shorts on August 20 alone, followed by another $780 million over the next 24 hours.

The Coinbase premium remains negative after a record 95 days, indicating that US spot demand is not yet strong enough to confirm the rally's sustainability. However, if spot and perpetual demand continue to hold positive for a month, it could upgrade the signal from tentative to structural.