Bitcoin Tests Critical Zone as Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Looms
Bitcoin's price has dropped below $80,000 and is testing a critical zone near its 50-week moving average ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says the next one to two weeks could determine whether the rally is a true breakout or another bear market fakeout. He compares the current setup to prior midterm-year rallies, particularly in 2018 when Bitcoin bounced hard off its 50-week moving average before rolling over into a deeper fourth-quarter low.
Cowen notes that Bitcoin's current structure has tracked the 2018 bear market analog closely, with a February low near $60,000 and a higher low in late March or early April. The rally took longer to develop this time, but Cowen says the path still looks similar enough to keep the bearish scenario alive.
Cowen's key line is $85,000, which he believes would call into question the validity of the continuation of the bear market if Bitcoin starts accepting above that level. If it stalls between $80,000 and $85,000, the 2018-style rejection case remains intact.