Bitcoin Tracks Global Liquidity More Than Earnings, Says Raoul Pal

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has emphasized that Bitcoin's price is closely tied to global liquidity, arguing that it tracks the amount of money flowing through the financial system rather than corporate earnings or news.

Pal stated that Bitcoin holds an 87% correlation to global liquidity, while the Nasdaq's correlation stands at 97%. This suggests that assets like Bitcoin and mega-cap tech stocks are now trading as near-identical proxies for the same liquidity conditions.

This view is not new for Pal, who has been arguing that liquidity conditions drive digital asset prices. He believes that governments' reliance on short-term debt issuance forces central banks to inject liquidity on a recurring cycle, which in turn supports his $450,000 Bitcoin price target by year-end if central bank liquidity expands.

Keyrock's analysis also supports this thesis, finding an eight-month lag between Treasury bill issuance and bitcoin returns. This means that current correlation readings likely reflect liquidity conditions set months earlier rather than in real time.