Bitcoin Trading Range Seen Between $60K and $75K for Months
Research firm K33 has found striking similarities between Bitcoin's current market structure and conditions in September and November 2022, periods that preceded a prolonged consolidation phase. According to K33's Head of Research Vetle Lunde, those regimes marked near-term market bottoms but were followed by extended stretches of muted returns and slow price action rather than sharp rebounds.
The firm uses its proprietary regime indicator, which incorporates derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macroeconomic inputs including the U.S. yield curve. Derivatives data reflects real-time demand for hedging or upside exposure and gives a clearer read on trader positioning than sentiment surveys alone.
Bitcoin has shed nearly 28% since January, with derivatives signals turned defensive across multiple metrics. Funding rates remained negative for more than 11 consecutive days, and notional open interest dropped below 260,000 Bitcoin, reflecting investors unwinding long positions.
K33's Lunde said declining leverage at these levels reduces the near-term risk of derivatives-driven squeezes in either direction. Spot trading volumes fell 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest declined to four-month lows, behavior K33 described as consistent with markets absorbing losses and stabilizing after major drawdowns.
Volatility has begun to normalize as prices steadied, further supporting expectations for a quieter trading environment in the near term. Institutional activity reflects similar caution, with traders on CME remaining largely inactive, and Bitcoin exchange-traded products recording a drawdown of 103,113 Bitcoin from peak holdings since October.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hit an all-time low of 5. Lunde cautioned against over-reading such numbers, noting that buying Bitcoin during periods of Extreme Fear has historically produced average 90-day returns of just 2.4%, compared with 95% when purchasing during Extreme Greed.
Lunde expects Bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $75,000 for a prolonged period, describing current entry levels as attractive while emphasizing the need for patience. K33's model shows that strongly similar historical regimes delivered average 90-day returns of roughly 3%, while moderately similar environments produced slightly negative returns.