Bitcoin Trapped Below $66k Despite Strong HODLer Conviction
The Bitcoin market has been experiencing a range-bound trend, oscillating between $60k and $66k since June. Despite strong HODLer conviction, indicated by record high supply with long-term holders, fear lingers in the market. According to CryptoQuant's data, the stablecoin supply ratio measures Bitcoin’s market cap to the aggregate market cap of all stablecoins at 11.58, showing relatively low stablecoin supply and limited buying power.
Furthermore, AMBCrypto reported that daily miner revenue from block rewards has dropped below $30 million by mid-July, putting miners in a tight spot. The apparent demand-to-issuance metric, used by Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., shows that the current price rebound is not accompanied by growth in the volume of young coins.
This metric was at -5.43 and has been negative for five months now, indicating weak new demand. Additionally, the net age flow, which tracks the movement of Bitcoin between cohorts over 30 days old, has been negative for seven months. The current flow of -85.5k BTC means 85.5k Bitcoin has moved from young coins into the over-one-year category.
Taken together, these metrics point to a market where existing holders continue accumulating, but new buyers have yet to arrive in sufficient numbers. A positive shift in net age flow and a reading of above 1 in the demand-to-issuance metric would confirm a bullish regime shift for Bitcoin.