Bitcoin Trapped Between Bear Market Signals and Key Support Levels
Bitcoin's recent price action has been characterized as mid-to-late bear market behavior by Bitfinex Alpha, indicating reduced trading volume and on-chain activity.
The asset remains trapped between the long-term realized price of $52,699 and the short-term holder's realized price of $67,176. This narrow range has persisted for nearly a quarter, with volatility continuing to contract as trend boundaries converge.
A median realized price near $63,200 has served as support over the past two weeks, but breaking below this level carries downside risk, potentially putting the June low of $57,803 back into focus. The spot exchange volume, adjusted for coin count, has fallen to early-2019 levels, while Bitcoin transfer velocity has dropped to a seven-year low.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net-negative week in three weeks, shedding $385.2 million in outflows. This marks a rare alignment of ETF and corporate treasury selling, indicating fresh liquidity has yet to return despite improving macro conditions.