Bitcoin Trapped in Narrow Trading Range as Indicators Suggest Late-Stage Bear Market

Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow trading range between $62,000 and $66,000 for weeks, raising questions about its potential to break free from the bear market. Despite showing some strength with a 1% gain on the session and a weekly advance exceeding 3%, price action remains trapped within this tight band.

According to Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, which uses blue to indicate capitulation and red to signal overheating near peaks, 45 Bitcoin price metrics have remained in capitulation phase for the most extended period since the FTX collapse in late 2022. The heatmap currently shows a predominantly blue coloration, indicating that conditions are compatible with a late-stage bear market.

The Bitcoin Cycle Composite, which compresses 45 on-chain indicators into a single score from 0 to 100, is sitting at 19.9, in the cold zone reserved for capitulation phases. Three months ago, this composite median was around 33, indicating a rapid and deep decline. 41 out of 45 indicators are now in the lowest two quintiles of their historical ranges.

Another indicator from CryptoQuant, the Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio, has dropped to 0.031, placing it in the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle. This ratio is lower than recorded on 97% of days since the halving and remains below the 25th percentile since late January.