Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Trade at Odds with Their Underlying BTC Value

A company's stock market valuation doesn't necessarily reflect its Bitcoin holdings. The gap between the two can be significant, and it's not just about where Bitcoin trades.

The modified net asset value (mNAV) metric shows how much investors are willing to pay for a share relative to its underlying Bitcoin value. An mNAV above 1x indicates a premium, while below 1x means a discount.

Investors may pay more than the current BTC value because they expect management to increase Bitcoin per share. This feedback loop helped Strategy become one of the best-known examples of this model.

Strategy raised $25.3 billion in 2025, making it the largest U.S. equity issuer that year, while continuing to expand its Bitcoin holdings. By July 2026, it held more than 843,000 BTC and had raised another $17.06 billion through at-the-market programs during the year.

The premium can collapse much faster than Bitcoin itself once the stock approaches 1x mNAV. Debt also matters, as two firms with identical Bitcoin holdings should not necessarily have identical valuations if one has billions of dollars of debt or preferred-stock obligations.