Bitcoin Triggers Eight Capitulation Signals as Rebound Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin's price decline has triggered eight out of twelve capitulation signals from VanEck, but the firm warns that this does not necessarily mean a fast rebound is imminent. According to historical data from VanEck, periods with eight to twelve active signals have not produced unusually strong returns over the following three or six months.

The average return for Bitcoin during such periods was 12.8% over 90 days and 32% over 180 days. However, the one-year holding period showed a higher average gain of 44%, but this result came from only 115 observation days that overlapped heavily.

VanEck's indicators cover price losses, miner finances, and the share of Bitcoin holders carrying unrealized losses, which have all been triggered in the current cycle. The firm expects the current decline to stop earlier than previous major bear markets due to the presence of U.S. spot exchange-traded products and more institutional holders.