Bitcoin Underperforms Against Dollar as Rally Falters

Bitcoin's recent rally has taken an unexpected turn, as it underperforms against the US dollar for the first time since 2015. According to data from Bitget, BTC has declined more sharply than the DXY (Dollar Index) since May, breaking a long-standing pattern that investors have relied on.

The DXY, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, sat at 100.14 as of late July, while Bitcoin's price dropped to around $63,000 by early August, representing a year-to-date drawdown of roughly 25-31%. This divergence is unusual, especially given that BTC reached all-time highs above $126,000 in October 2025 and had been trading near $97,860 in January 2026.

The dollar's resilience reflects a monetary policy backdrop that hasn't been as accommodative as crypto markets needed. Historically, a strong dollar creates headwinds for risk assets, and Bitcoin has behaved more like a risk asset than a safe haven in 2026. The correlation between Bitcoin weakness and dollar strength isn't new, but the degree of Bitcoin's underperformance relative to the dollar during this rally phase is genuinely unusual.