Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Prediction Markets See $50K More Likely Than $100K
Bitcoin whales are buying up large amounts of BTC, even as prediction markets indicate that the cryptocurrency has a higher chance of falling to $50,000 than reaching $100,000 in 2026.
The prediction market odds on Kalshi suggest a roughly 55% probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 before reaching $100,000.
Trader exitpump disagrees with these odds, arguing that the current market activity is a meaningful retest of the FTX collapse anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), which is one of Bitcoin's most important long-term support levels. The trader notes that years of ETF inflows, institutional participation and trading activity have turned the AVWAP into the average cost basis for a large share of Bitcoin accumulated since late 2022.
According to CryptoQuant, more than 38,000 BTC recently flowed into accumulation addresses, one of the largest inflows recorded for wallets typically associated with long-term holders and OTC settlement activity. The realized price of these accumulation wallets currently sits near $70,000, compared with Bitcoin trading around $64,000.