Bitcoin Whales Idle Amid Volatility as Distribution Shifts
Benjamin Cowen, a renowned cryptocurrency analyst, has published an analysis of the current state of large-scale transactions in the Bitcoin market. He notes that metrics tracking whale activity operate differently from traditional risk indicators and should not be interpreted as direct signals of bull or bear markets.
Cowen's analysis highlights a significant lull in high-volume whale transfers, with levels reminiscent of the recession period in August 2018. This is despite the stock market activity score historically rising during market lows, such as in 2015, 2018, and 2020.
The analyst also points out a change in asset distribution among Bitcoin wallets, with the share of wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC decreasing from approximately 30% to 20%, while the share of wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC increasing from 20% to 25-26%. This indicates a significant redistribution process among whale layers in Bitcoin.
Cowen concludes that on-chain activity could increase again in the coming period and advises closely monitoring whale activity to understand whether the new volatility in the market has come to an end.