Bitcoin's 11-Month Cycle Suggests Accumulation Season Has Begun

Bitcoin's recent surge to above $80,000 has left many wondering if the bottom is officially in. The answer lies in the 11-month cycle position, which suggests that the worst of the bleed is over and accumulation season is underway.

The market was heavily skewed short, with billions in shorts during the rally above $80K. A classic textbook short squeeze occurred, forcing bears to buy back in and driving the Bitcoin price even higher. Macroeconomic and political catalysts also played a role, including the U.S. Treasury's decision to double its buyback operations for long-term Treasuries and Donald Trump's tease of a strategic government Bitcoin reserve.

The 11-month cycle position indicates that the smart money (whales, institutions, and seasoned veterans) are buying the dips heavily. Data from Santiment shows that smart money is stuffing their wallets with BTC, while CryptoQuant reports that addresses holding 1,000+ BTC have added over 122,000 BTC in the past four weeks.

While the macro bottom is likely cemented, short-term dips and shakeouts are still possible. The $83K level represents a crucial resistance point, above which Bitcoin will enter a new bull market. Technical analysts agree that a clean break above this level, followed by a confirmed five-wave upward structure, validates a medium-to-long-term bullish reversal.