Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle May Be Ending, Willy Woo Warns of 6-8 Year Shift

Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be coming to an end, according to Willy Woo, a prominent on-chain analyst. In a recent post, Woo suggested that Bitcoin is transitioning to a 6-8 year cycle, which could lead to longer-term price trends and shifts in market drivers.

The current rate of new supply has dropped below 1%, with the next halving projected for April 2028. This decrease in issuance could cause the market's focus to shift from supply shocks to institutional ETFs and macro capital flows, leading to changes in volatility.

Woo pointed out that Bitcoin's major peaks and troughs have historically clustered around its four completed halvings, with price highs following in late 2013, late 2017, late 2021, and October 2025. However, the analyst noted that the current rate of new supply is now negligible relative to the total number of coins already in circulation.

Other analysts have also raised questions about Bitcoin's cycle, with some predicting a support level near $70k by 2026. Woo's position on this matter has shifted over time, as he initially floated the idea that the clean four-year template was breaking but later pushed back against a growing 'cycles are dead' narrative.