Bitcoin's 40% Rebound: Bull Market or Bear Cycle?

A recent Bitcoin price rebound of approximately 40% has left investors wondering if this is the start of a new bull market or just a stronger stretch within an ongoing bear cycle.

Bitcoin's current price sits near $77,730, slightly behind the broader crypto market's gain. The debate surrounding the rally was discussed on the Wu Blockchain podcast featuring frontier-tech investor Didier and macro hedge fund portfolio manager Griffin Ardern.

Didier pointed to Bitcoin trading well above its 200-day moving average, along with light positioning and high short interest, as early signs of a bull market. Griffin Ardern, however, argued that the marketplace still looks like the later stage of a bear cycle, not the start of a new one.

The conversation also touched on Strategy's balance sheet and whether capital could shift out of crowded AI trades into crypto. Both sides agreed that the rally leaned heavily on under-positioning and short covering rather than fresh, sustained buying.