Bitcoin's 40% Rebound: New Bull Cycle or Bear Market Hangover?

Investors didier and Griffin Ardern debated whether Bitcoin's nearly 40% rebound from its late-June low signifies the start of a new bull market. didier pointed to the cryptocurrency reclaiming its 200-day moving average as evidence that the bear market has ended, while Griffin maintained that the bear market persists until dollar liquidity and Treasury yield signals become clearer.

The discussion took place on the WuBlockchain Podcast, where both guests shared their views on the current state of the market. didier emphasized that the rally reflects a short squeeze after weeks of thin trading and compressed options volatility, while Griffin attributed the rebound to capital rotation out of AI-focused investments into Bitcoin.

Griffin also noted that Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder led by Michael Saylor, is functioning more like an asset manager now, meaning trouble at Strategy would not necessarily reverse the rally or confirm the bear market has returned. didier outlined three priorities guiding Strategy's decisions: supporting Bitcoin's price, maintaining a premium on Strategy's common stock, and pushing STRC back toward $100.