Bitcoin's August Surge May Confirm Bear Market Bottom
The recent price action of Bitcoin has been notable for its vertical rise from $62,000 to $80,000 in August. This comes against the backdrop of seasonal statistics that traditionally make August a poor month for BTC. One question remains: was July 1's low at $57,750 the final bottom of the current bear market?
According to Swissquote's analysis, if the July 1 low were indeed the final bottom, this would be an exceptional characteristic of the 2026 bearish cycle. It would have a duration of just 268 days, significantly shorter than the previous three major cyclical Bitcoin bear markets: 406 days in 2014, 363 days in 2018, and 376 days in 2022.
The analysis also points out that the declining trend in duration remains intact. Two technical indicators are used to determine whether the July 1 low is truly the final bottom of the bear market: the 200-day simple moving average and the weekly Kijun of the Ichimoku system.
Historically, the 200-day SMA has been a key dividing line between bull and bear markets for Bitcoin. A sustained recovery above this average, followed by consolidation above it, represents a robust signal that the cyclical bear market is over. The 200-day SMA was decisively broken to the upside on August 19.
The BITCOIN/S&P 500 ratio also shows early bullish reversal signals, similar to those seen in 2019 and 2022. This includes a weekly bullish divergence and a breakout above the weekly Kijun of the Ichimoku system.