Bitcoin's Bear Cycle Looks Familiar, But Could It Be the Bullish Case?

Bitcoin's price has declined by nearly 50% since reaching a record high of $126,080 in October, falling to recent lows around $60,000. While this slump may seem alarming, some analysts believe it is just business as usual for the cryptocurrency.

A report from asset manager VanEck suggests that Bitcoin's current downturn tracks its historical four-year halving cycle. This cycle features a periodic cut in mining rewards, which tightens new supply and often precedes a bear phase. The firm frames this downturn as a recurring feature of Bitcoin's market structure rather than a break from it.

VanEck's GEO framework currently shows two out of three signals reading neutral, with ecosystem leverage in constructive territory. This combination points to early signs of a bottom forming and suggests that it may be time to begin scaling into positions.

A separate analysis from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant also highlights that long-term Bitcoin holders are now sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the market overall. Analyst MorenoDV notes that this exact dynamic has shown up at every prior major cycle bottom, suggesting a potential bottom forming.