Bitcoin's Bear Market May Be Ending Soon, Analyst Warns of Key Support Levels

Bitcoin's price action is being closely watched as it navigates through its current bear market. According to a chart analyst, Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of one year in bear market and three years in bull market. This cycle is based on patterns dating back to prior cycles.

The current downturn began after Bitcoin's October 2025 high, putting the cryptocurrency roughly on track to enter its final quarter of decline. The analyst notes that Bitcoin has already reached the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone for Q3, a level they had flagged in advance as the ceiling for this stage of the cycle.

A rejection from this resistance could open a path down toward $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 identified as a further downside target if selling accelerates. Near-term support sits in a zone between $59,369 and $62,533, which the analyst describes as the key area to watch heading into the weekly close.

Seasonal patterns also point to volatility in August, with data showing that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years. In 2022, Bitcoin extended gains into mid-August before reversing, a pattern the analyst said could repeat.