Bitcoin's Bottom May Already Be In, Grayscale Says Macro Forces Matter More
The four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin's price movements is being challenged by some analysts who believe that the bottom may already be in. According to Grayscale, a major cryptocurrency investment firm, macroeconomic forces are increasingly driving the price of BTC, rather than traditional market cycles.
Historically, Bitcoin's price has followed a four-year cycle, with bear markets reaching their lows around one year after a cyclical peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving event. However, Grayscale argues that this framework is no longer applicable due to the maturation of the asset class.
Grayscale notes that previous bear markets have coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, and adds that this year's downturn has unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates. Under this macro-driven framework, Grayscale believes that BTC's price may already have reached its low.
Other analysts, such as crypto trader Killa and analyst Ali Martinez, also support the idea that the bottom may already be in. Martinez notes that the monthly chart is displaying technical signals similar to those seen near the end of previous bear markets, while Killa believes that Bitcoin's market structure suggests a potential turning point.