Bitcoin's 'Dead Market' Signal Rekindled Amid Converging Bottom Indicators

Bitcoin's 'Dead Market' signal has returned, echoing a pattern seen near the 2022 cycle bottom. A 157-day drought in futures returns now ranks as Glassnode's second-longest period below Treasury yields.

Net capital flow divergence has reappeared, with Bitcoin trading just above its $63,777 200-week SMA, a level repeatedly linked to past cycle recoveries. Three independent indicators now converge: an improving flow divergence, compressed derivatives returns, and a test of a decade-long moving-average benchmark.

The current signal does not establish a confirmed bottom by itself but reproduces a relationship that previously appeared as Bitcoin completed its last major bear-market decline. Market activity has remained unusually quiet despite Bitcoin trading far above its 2022 low.