Bitcoin's Fate Hangs in Balance as Jackson Hole Speech Looms
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped below $80,000 and is testing its 50-week moving average ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen thinks the next one to two weeks will determine whether this rally is a true breakout or just another bear market fakeout.
Cowen said Bitcoin's current structure tracks closely with the 2018 bear market analog, which saw a February low near $60,000 followed by a higher low in late March or early April and a lower high in May. The summer saw a sweep below $60,000 before the rally back toward the 50-week moving average.
Cowen noted that if Bitcoin can't hold above the low-to-mid $80,000s, especially with multiple weekly closes in the mid-80s, it calls into question the validity of the bear market continuation. He thinks Warsh's Jackson Hole comments may drive short-term volatility but won't decide Bitcoin's cycle.
Cowen emphasized that he is not telling investors to time the bottom perfectly and stressed the importance of accumulating Bitcoin in the second half of midterm years, even if the market later moves lower.