Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle in Shambles: Analysts Scramble for New Patterns

The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin's price movements is being questioned by analysts as the current cycle unfolds differently from previous ones. According to data from CryptoQuant, past cycle bottoms landed between 770 and 900 days after halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. However, this time around, Bitcoin posted a new all-time high before the halving, breaking the historical timing pattern.

The shift in market dynamics is attributed to the increasing institutional involvement in Bitcoin, with spot ETF approvals allowing large investors to enter the market ahead of the halving. This approach differs from the retail-driven cycles seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020, where traders tracked days elapsed since a halving event.

The halving's supply shock also carries less weight due to the larger pool of tradable Bitcoin in circulation. As a result, price momentum may build more slowly than before, making it difficult to predict whether counting days after a halving still applies.

A social media post on X argued that Bitcoin may have already broken its cycle, suggesting that the bottom formed roughly 650 days before the next scheduled halving. If accurate, this would open room for a new all-time high before the 2028 halving arrives.