Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Loses Ground, Willy Woo Says

Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be coming to an end, according to Willy Woo, a popular on-chain analyst. In a recent opinion piece, Woo argued that the halving event, which occurs every four years, is no longer dictating the broader price cycle of BTC.

The halving framework has worked well for Bitcoin's history, but Woo believes the changing market structure has weakened its influence. With the rise of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, the asset's price may now be more closely tied to traditional financial markets' six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle.

Woo pointed out that new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% of the existing supply per year after the latest halving in April 2024. The next event, scheduled for early 2028, will further reduce this figure to roughly 0.4%. This diminishing supply shock may be causing the halving's influence on the price cycle to wane.

Other analysts, including Arthur Hayes and Fidelity Digital Assets, have also questioned the four-year cycle's relevance in recent years. However, not everyone agrees with Woo's assessment. Galaxy Research found that BTC's four-year cycle remains visible in the data, although each cycle is becoming less extreme.