Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Replaced by New 6-8 Year Rhythm
Bitcoin's price may be influenced by a new 6-to-8-year rhythm tied to traditional finance's short-term debt cycle, according to analyst Willy Woo. This shift could make halvings less relevant to Bitcoin's price movements.
The 2024 halving reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, resulting in an annual new issuance of around 164,250 BTC, or about 0.82% of current circulating supply. The next halving in 2028 would cut this pace again to about 82,125 BTC a year, equivalent to roughly 0.41% of today's supply base.
Institutional capital is now rivaling Bitcoin's internal clock, with institutional holdings dwarfing the amount of new Bitcoin miners add to circulation each year. Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that 100 public companies hold more than 1.2 million BTC, while Bitcoin exchange-traded products control more than 1.5 million coins.
This changing balance could make credit conditions, global liquidity, and portfolio flows increasingly important in determining major market turns.