Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: Will It Recover in Time?

Bitcoin's price has risen by 23% over the last week, but its trajectory is still uncertain. The cryptocurrency's history shows that it moves in cycles lasting around four years, with a bull market followed by a bear market.

The previous bear markets saw Bitcoin hit lows of $152 in January 2015, $3,200 in December 2018, and $15,500 in November 2022. If the pattern holds, the current low point could be sometime later this year.

However, all those bear markets happened before the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which may have made the cryptocurrency more resilient to downturns. At its lowest point in this bear market, it had declined by 54% from its all-time high, compared to drawdowns of 77% or more in previous cycles.

Bitcoin's recent surge above its 200-day moving average is a good sign that the market may now be in a recovery phase. However, recoveries tend to be choppy and slow, with an average time frame of 643 days from the bear market bottom to the previous high.