Bitcoin's Future Direction Hinges on Key Technical Indicator
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, has outlined both bull and bear scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC). In his analysis video, he examined on-chain data, technical indicators, market sentiment, and cyclical historical data to determine the current picture.
Cowen highlighted several signals that point to a potential cycle bottom. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to its historical lows, while the monthly RSI has cooled significantly. Additionally, the recent Golden Cross and long-term investors' accumulation levels hovering near historical cycle lows support the bullish outlook.
However, Cowen also noted that historical data supporting a bearish scenario have not yet been completely erased. Critical on-chain metrics such as Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and Market Cap/Thermocap ratio have not yet fallen to extremely low levels seen in past bear market lows.
Cowen stated that the 50-week moving average will play a key role in determining the market's future direction. If weekly closes are above this level, currently around $80,000, it would solidify the bullish scenario. A rejection at this level could lead to a search for a new low in the last quarter of the year.