Bitcoin's Gold-Like Behavior Intensifies Amid US Debt Fears

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased significantly in recent months, according to Grayscale. This shift suggests that investors are treating Bitcoin more as a scarce monetary asset rather than a high-beta technology investment.

Grayscale found that over the past 90 days, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has decreased from over 60% to around 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from barely above zero at the start of 2026 to more than 50%. This change in behavior is attributed to investors increasingly recognizing Bitcoin's scarcity and store-of-value characteristics.

The growing concern about U.S. debt, which exceeded $40 trillion in August, may be driving this shift. The Treasury Department reported that it expects to borrow a substantial amount from the public in the next two quarters, adding to existing fiscal pressures. As a result, investors are reassessing their portfolios and seeking assets outside government-issued currencies and sovereign debt.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned that U.S. debt could reach between $55 trillion and $60 trillion within a decade, and that gold and Bitcoin may perform relatively well in response to monetary pressures. The debasement trade, which involves reducing exposure to currencies or government debt in favor of assets with constrained supplies, is gaining traction as investors seek safe-haven assets.