Bitcoin's Higher Low Sparks Hope, But Buyers Face Stiffer Breakeven Test
Bitcoin's recent price surge has brought it back to levels seen in May, but this time around, recent buyers are facing a significantly higher hurdle to breakeven. According to Glassnode data, the average entry price for coins younger than 155 days has dropped sharply, from near $78,713 in May to approximately $71,188 today.
This means that even a small dip of 2.9% would have pushed the entire cohort back underwater in May, but now they have a much larger buffer of 12.4%, roughly four times wider than before. Historically, this kind of buffer has been a deciding factor in whether recoveries hold or fail.
However, another metric, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), complicates the picture. SOPR printed 1.0082 on September 3, indicating that coins moving on-chain changed hands at less than 1% average profit, which is lower than comparable breakouts in November 2024 and July 2025.
The weekly chart shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the $126,200 record, but Bitcoin has now printed a higher low and trades 35.8% below its all-time high. A weekly close above $82,842 would confirm the first higher high since the record, while resistance sits immediately above at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $83,917.