Bitcoin's July Rally May Be a Prelude to August Weakness

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that Bitcoin's July rally may be followed by another period of weakness, as it has in previous midterm-year bear markets. In a podcast released on July 31, Cowen pointed out that July often acts as relief after sharp declines in June, citing the patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.

In both instances, Bitcoin rebounded from June lows only to decline again during August and September. This year, Bitcoin gained around 10% in July, consistent with prior midterm-election years. However, Cowen warns that history suggests selling pressure will likely intensify later in the quarter.

Cowen also highlighted rising U.S. Treasury yields as a potential headwind for Bitcoin, comparing the current environment to 2023 when Bitcoin weakened after July due to increasing yields.