Bitcoin's Liquidity Crisis: AI-Related Debt Drains Capital
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has revisited his liquidity thesis for Bitcoin after the cryptocurrency's recent price drop. He argues that the money created between 2022 and 2026 went into AI-related debt rather than Bitcoin.
In a Cointelegraph podcast, Hayes estimated $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued during this period, with 75% to 80% of it coming from 2025. He claims that this money financed the AI buildout and hyperscaler capital expenditure, leaving little for Bitcoin.
Hayes also believes that the dynamic reversed as AI spending and lending accelerated into 2025, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall sharply despite continued money creation.
He is now bearish on nearly every risk asset except large energy producers, which could drag down Bitcoin in a broad selloff. However, he thinks that if the AI bubble bursts or shows signs of bursting, it would force central banks into money-printing mode, and Bitcoin is well-positioned to absorb this capital.