Bitcoin's Price History Reveals a Pattern Before US Midterms

Bitcoin's price history shows a pattern of entering bear markets before US midterm elections and recovering afterwards. This recurring sequence was discovered by Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, who compared Bitcoin's price history against US election cycles.

A chart from Wedson showed that BTC entered a bear market about one year before every US midterm election, only to recover after the vote. In some cases, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.

Wedson also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly when a president won an election and reaching a local peak on inauguration day. For example, XRP started a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reached a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.

A Binance Research report from earlier in the year also found that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once political uncertainty faded. According to the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.