Bitcoin's Price Stuck in Narrow Range as Macro Risk Increases
Bitcoin's price is currently stuck in a tight range of $77,000 to $78,000, having retreated from a failed attempt to break through $82,000.
This consolidation comes as macro risk climbs and rate-hike odds approach 90%, according to market notes. Bitcoin has been trading within this narrow band for two weeks, with weekly trading confined to the same range of $77,000-$79,700.
The asset is currently tracking gold more closely than equities, while Brent crude has surged above $100 a barrel and European stocks have slid due to geopolitical tensions.
According to a recent analysis by bitjultrades, two key levels are being tested: around $84,250 and $73,000. The author notes that the current price is being rejected by the EMA500 on the daily chart, which has historically led to a -40% crash when swept.
Support clusters exist at $76,000-$76,350, tied to the average on-chain cost basis of active investors, while deeper floors are found near $71,781-$75,674. Resistance stacks at $79,000 and then the heavier $80,000-$82,793 band that has been rejected twice.
Bull case scenarios suggest a daily close above $82,000 could lead to a move towards $90,000 (an 18% increase), while base case predictions see continued chop between $75,500 and $80,000 until the Fed clarifies rate policy. Bear cases warn of a break below $75,500 risking a retest of $70,000-$66,000.