Bitcoin's Price Surge Meets Caution as Macro Climate Shifts to Risk-Off
A recent surge in the price of Bitcoin has led to increased speculation about its potential for further growth. However, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market's internal structure remains weak and is not yet ready for a sustained rally.
Adler pointed out that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 14 basis points, making it more expensive for investors to borrow money and take on risk. This shift in macroeconomic conditions has led to a 'RISK-OFF' climate, causing investors to shy away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.
The analyst's Weekly Engine model has issued a 'WAIT' call on Sunday, unchanged for an eighth straight week, with 0% allocation in Bitcoin. The model also indicates that the market is lacking buying liquidity, and new capital activity remains near annual lows.
Adler noted that despite the recent price increase, retail sentiment around BTC dropped to 'bearish' from the 'neutral' zone, accompanied by low chatter levels over the past day. He emphasized that without sufficient demand, the market will struggle to convert a local recovery into a sustained uptrend.