Bitcoin's Profitable Supply Reaches 57.5%, But Bull Market Confirmation Remains Premature
The profitability of Bitcoin's supply has improved significantly since June 30, when it hit a low point of 46.2%. According to CryptoQuant data, the proportion of BTC supply in profit (Supply in Profit) has risen to 57.5%, with some market participants expecting this indicator to reach 60%.
The current recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires ongoing validation. Historical cycles indicate that a true end to a bear market usually requires two conditions: the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the long-term holders' profitability indicator (LTH-SOPR) consistently remaining above 1 and not falling below it for several weeks, and the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit steadily above 64%.
Analysts have already observed a 'false breakout' during this cycle. In April, the LTH-SOPR average remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the supply in profit rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently pulled back again. Currently, the 30-day SMA indicator for long-term holders has been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days.
The market still faces the risk of another pullback, and the current rebound is not yet confirmed as a new upward cycle. Market participants need further confirmation of long-term holders' behavior and changes in profitability structure before making any investment decisions.