Bitcoin's Prolonged Bear Phase: Will Golden Cross Signal End Downturn?

The 'golden cross' pattern in Bitcoin has been a topic of interest for crypto enthusiasts. This phenomenon occurs when the short-term moving average (50 MA) crosses above the long-term moving average (200 MA), signaling a potential uptrend.

Since the last 'death cross' in November 2025, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged bearish phase, with the 50 MA still below the 200 MA. This situation is one of the longest such phases in crypto market history, lasting over 277 days.

A comparison of simple and exponential moving averages as trading signals shows that while both have their limitations, drawdowns are smaller for 'cross' strategies. However, the pattern's effectiveness in predicting price movements is a topic of debate.