Bitcoin's Quantum Exposure Conundrum: Is 30% a Realistic Risk?

The Bitcoin community is abuzz over proposals to address the threat of quantum computers that could potentially wipe out a significant portion of its supply. Glassnode research pegs Bitcoin's quantum-exposed supply at 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of issued supply, while an XRP Ledger validator audit concluded that only about 0.03% of XRP is at risk due to exposed public keys.

However, experts argue that these figures conflate technical exposure with realistic risk. CoinShares estimates that roughly 1.6 million BTC (8% of supply) sits in legacy P2PK addresses considered genuinely vulnerable, but only about 10,200 BTC is concentrated enough to cause meaningful market disruption if stolen.

The BIP-361 proposal targets activation for Jan. 1, 2027, and would block new payments into quantum-vulnerable address types. Ripple has also published its own post-quantum roadmap, which includes a four-phase plan to transition the network by 2028.