Bitcoin's Rebound Fails to Meet Key Market Metrics

The recent price recovery of Bitcoin has been cautioned as a short-term rally rather than a trend reversal by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. According to their latest on-chain report, key market metrics remain weak, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has not yet exited the capitulation phase.

One critical metric is the short-term holder cost basis, estimated at around $68,500, and the realized market mean price of $75,800. These levels are significant because they represent the average acquisition price for recent buyers and the overall market participant base, respectively. Trading below them typically indicates that a significant portion of holders are in unrealized loss.

Relative unrealized losses have peaked at 25% from the cycle high, but this figure remains well below the 60% or more observed in previous major drawdowns. The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio stands at 0.75, meaning that for every dollar of realized profit, there is $0.75 in realized losses.

The mixed signals from derivatives and ETF flows suggest a cautious outlook. Perpetual futures demand has turned positive, indicating speculative interest returning. Exchange-traded fund inflows have also stabilized after outflows, offering a tentative sign of institutional interest. However, the Coinbase premium remains negative, suggesting U.S.-based spot demand has not meaningfully recovered.