Bitcoin's Recovery Fails to Convince VanEck's Capitulation Dashboard
Bitcoin's recent rebound has sparked hopes that the market has moved beyond its worst phase of correction. However, data from VanEck's capitulation dashboard suggests that buying too early can be a costly mistake.
The dashboard showed eight out of 12 signals active on August 12, but history does not confirm an immediate bottom for Bitcoin. In fact, when these conditions are met in the past, the market has returned an average of 32% over 180 days, compared to 36.3% for a broader baseline.
A short squeeze event on August 19 removed significant leverage from the market, while $2.23 billion entered U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over seven days. On-chain data also looks constructive, with accumulation across wallet cohorts and coins moving away from exchanges. However, VanEck reported that supply held for more than one year declined by 356,534 BTC over 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of circulating supply.