Bitcoin's September Outlook Hinges on Key Moving Average
Bitcoin's (BTC) September outlook is uncertain as it flashes both bullish and bearish signals. Analyst Benjamin Cowen compared various on-chain, technical, sentiment, and cycle indicators to assess whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or still faces another leg lower.
Cowen noted that several indicators favor the bulls, including Bitcoin's weekly RSI falling to levels associated with prior major lows and its monthly RSI resetting substantially. Long-term holder accumulation has also plateaued near levels historically seen at cycle bottoms.
However, some indicators remain less convincing for the bulls. The Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-score, and market-cap-to-thermocap ratio have not fallen to levels reached during previous major bear-market bottoms. Whale activity has remained muted compared with previous cycle lows.
Cowen believes that Bitcoin's 50-week moving average near $80,000 could determine whether the bear market is over. Sustained weekly closes above this level would strengthen the bull case and reduce the risk of another major decline.