Bitcoin's September Weakness: A Shift in Historical Trends
A recent analysis by XWIN Japan suggests that Bitcoin may face seasonal weakness in September. Historically, both US stocks and Bitcoin have tended to weaken during this month.
XWIN Japan cited statistics showing that the S&P 500's average September return over the past 50 years is -0.8 percent, making it the weakest month of the year. Bitcoin has also posted negative September returns for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022.
However, XWIN Japan noted that recent trends have differed somewhat from the past, with Bitcoin ending September higher for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025. This raises questions about whether seasonal downside pressure will strengthen again this year.
The key variables driving Bitcoin's price direction in September are expected to include US stocks, long-term Treasury yields, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and spot demand. XWIN Japan believes that if risk-off sentiment spreads across markets, Bitcoin is likely to face downside pressure.