Bitcoin's True Market Mean Becomes a Key Support Level
Bitfinex analysts say that Bitcoin's position above its True Market Mean reduces the risk of a deep pullback, even though September has produced an average loss of 2.95% since 2013. The True Market Mean measures the average cost basis of active Bitcoin investors and stood at $76,350 when the report was published.
Bitcoin has held between $76,500 and $79,500 for five trading days as its $76,350 active-investor cost basis has absorbed selling after a 24.9% August gain. Selling has appeared around the upper end of the range, but buyers have prevented Bitcoin from closing decisively below the on-chain cost basis.
Bitfinex found that investors who bought Bitcoin around current prices are providing much of the available supply. The long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) moved between 0.88 and 1.19 over nine consecutive sessions and stood at 0.98 in the report, indicating that buyers from February and March who held through the subsequent decline are now selling when Bitcoin returns to their entry prices.
Strategy's renewed buying has helped counter the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF demand. Corporate demand returned while Bitcoin was meeting passive sellers above $77,000. Strategy purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, paying an average price of $80,318 per coin.