Brent Prices Firmed on Geopolitics and OPEC Shifts

Brent oil prices have firmed up in recent days as concerns over OPEC's influence grow. According to ING, ICE Brent has gained 2.1% in value, marking a positive turn for the first time this week.

The price increase is attributed to the fading prospects of renewed US-Iran talks and the gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While diplomatic efforts have hit a roadblock, there are signs that additional oil is flowing through the key chokepoint, with average flows estimated at 5m b/d.

OPEC faces the risk of another member exiting the group after Venezuela's potential departure due to improving relations with the US. An exit would reduce OPEC's formal influence but still leave the wider OPEC+ group with significant market power.