Circle Sees Near-Term Margin Squeeze, JPMorgan Still Sees 100% Upside

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington maintains an Overweight rating on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and sets a price target of $120, implying nearly 100% upside from Monday's close of $60.35.

The bank expects further pressure in the third quarter as Hyperliquid's USDC balances migrate to Coinbase, cutting into Circle's economics on those assets.

However, JPMorgan found encouraging signs beneath the surface of Coinbase's earnings, suggesting that a larger portion of USDC may have remained on Circle's platform than previously expected.

The bank now estimates Circle held approximately $15 billion of on-platform USDC, up from its earlier forecast of $13.6 billion, generating better economics for the company.